Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They composes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
